Dec. 20 , 2021 — The Omicron coronavirus variant has been present in dozens of states throughout the nation because it was first recognized in South Africa in November, and plenty of could also be questioning: Will it upstage Delta and trigger a winter surge? Is it nonetheless secure to assemble with others for the vacations? How is that this variant affecting kids?
Consultants addressed these and different questions in a webinar hosted by New York College final week, acknowledging that it’ll take a while to search out out all of the essential details about Omicron.
However within the meantime, this is what’s recognized — and never — about Omicron within the fast-changing COVID panorama.
How widespread is Omicron now?
As of Dec. 15, Omicron transmission had been reported in 80 nations, in line with Michael H. Merson, MD, a visiting professor of world well being on the New York College College of International Public Well being. Within the 35 states with Omicron circumstances, the numbers differ. Proper now, New York and New Jersey are detecting the Omicron variant at about 4 instances the general charge within the nation, he stated. However whether or not or not the variant will stay in ”pockets” is at present unknown, he stated.
How can folks benefit from the holidays safely?
On the subject of deciding about gatherings and journey, “belief your instincts,” Elodie Ghedin, PhD, chief of the programs genomics part on the Nationwide Institute of Allergy and Infectious Illnesses and affiliate school member at NYU, stated.
“Previously 2 years, you’ve developed a really feel for what feels too shut. This isn’t April 2020. You will have discovered quite a bit within the final 2 years.”
For example of secure vacation gatherings, the consultants cited President Joe Biden’s look final Tuesday at a celebration of 400, which was held on a hotel rooftop because of COVID issues.
“It is crucial to spend the vacations with household and mates,” Merson stated. “However achieve this correctly. That is my recommendation about journey.”
Which means getting vaccinated and boosted when eligible, making use of speedy testing when known as for, masking, handwashing, avoiding crowded indoor areas, and protecting your distance from others.
Understanding your threat degree and that of household and mates when planning for the vacations can be vital, Merson stated.
Is Omicron tremendously affecting kids?
Consultants are ready on knowledge to search out out.
“The jury remains to be out on how virulent Omicron will likely be for youths,” stated Celine R. Gounder, MD, a member of President Biden’s COVID-19 process power and a scientific assistant professor of medication and infectious ailments at NYU Grossman College of Drugs. “We do not know.”
One of the best factor mother and father can do proper now’s to vaccinate their kids ages 5 years and up who’re eligible, she stated.
Do monoclonal antibody medicine work nicely in opposition to Omicron?
No, Ghedin stated.
“Many of the monoclonal antibodies don’t appear to work very nicely in opposition to Omicron,” she stated.
What’s recognized about how infectious Omicron is?
“It seems to be probably the most infectious variant so far,” stated Gounder.
“Relative to Delta, Omicron seems to be 2-Three instances extra infectious.”
Put one other means, she stated, you might be more likely to infect 2 to three instances extra folks than if contaminated with different variants.
Folks mustn’t depend on their pure immunity from a previous COVID an infection to guard them from the Omicron variant, Gounder stated.
It additionally does appear that the Omicron variant may be much less virulent than different variants, she stated. (Virulence refers to how extreme a illness an contaminated particular person can get.)
If Omicron is much less virulent, is not that excellent news?
Sure and no, Gounder stated.
“Even when it is a delicate illness, you possibly can nonetheless have plenty of deaths. As an instance COVID has a case fatality charge of 1% and you’ve got 100 individuals who get contaminated — and one loss of life,” she stated.
Then say Omicron’s charge is .25%, however when you’ve got 400 circumstances, since it’s extra infectious, that is nonetheless one loss of life.
“We actually need to be very cautious once we say much less lethal and fewer extreme [when talking about Omicron]. On a inhabitants degree, Omicron could possibly be simply as lethal as Delta even when it causes delicate illness, if extra are contaminated,” she stated.
If a COVID take a look at is optimistic, will the outcomes specify whether or not it’s the Delta or the Omicron variant?
“Sadly, you will be unable to get that data from a PCR take a look at completed in the neighborhood,” Ghedin stated. “In case you are doing it by a analysis entity, they may present that data, however I extremely doubt it.”
With extra folks vaccinated now than previously, can we take into account COVID endemic, not a pandemic, now?
No, Gounder stated.
“We’re nowhere close to endemic [status],” she stated. “We’re nonetheless very a lot pandemic. Saying it’s endemic now’s like saying, ‘Let’s do nothing.'”
Presently the U.S. is at a degree of about 60% of the inhabitants vaccinated, she stated.
“We actually should be attending to 85, 90 %” earlier than transitioning into endemic standing.
In tropical international locations, the flu is endemic, Ghedin stated, ”and it is there year-round. We’re not there with SARS-CoV-2.”
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